Key Points: 3 Crucial Numbers That Decide Control
- The midterm elections are today, Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
- As of this writing, there are no official voting results so far, because polls had not yet closed.
- Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47 and a razor-thin House majority.
- Forecasters favor Democrats to win the House, while control of the Senate is much closer.
- The three numbers to watch are 218, 51, and 50.
When Are the Midterm Elections, and What Is on the Ballot?
The midterms take place every four years, halfway through a president’s term. This year, all 435 House seats are up for election.
Voters will also fill 35 Senate seats, including special elections, and 36 governorships. Fox News counts 145 ballot measures on issues such as abortion, voter ID, and taxes.
Polls close at different times across states and time zones, so check your local election office for your hours.
Who Is Winning the Midterm Elections 2026? What We Know Right Now
The honest answer is that nobody has won anything yet. The Associated Press posted its seat tables early Tuesday, before voting began in the United States.
Check back on AP and trusted news outlets for results as the night goes on. What we do have are forecasts, and those are not the same as results.
Think of a forecast as a weather report. A 90 percent chance of rain does not mean 90 percent of the sky will be wet.
Number 1: 218 and the House
A party needs 218 seats to control the House. Republicans currently hold a very small majority.
Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats an 84 percent chance to win the House as of November 2, with a projected 241 seats. Fox News Power Rankings also point toward a Democratic takeover, and the prediction market Kalshi puts the odds near 94 percent.
Part of the reason is the generic ballot, which asks voters which party they plan to back. One tracker showed Democrats at 52 percent and Republicans at 43.9 percent.
Number 2: 51 and Number 3: 50 in the Senate
Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47. Because Vice President JD Vance breaks ties, Republicans need only 50 seats to keep control.
Democrats need 51. The New York Times calculated that they must hold every seat they have and flip four Republican-held ones.
Here, forecasts disagree. Decision Desk HQ gives Democrats a 65 percent chance, while Fox News rates the race a toss-up.
The Battleground States to Watch
Several close Senate races have been in the news. In Alaska, Mary Peltola faces Sen. Dan Sullivan, and in Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson faces Democrat Josh Turek.
In Texas, Republican Ken Paxton faces James Talarico, and in Michigan, Republican Mike Rogers faces Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. In Nebraska, independent Dan Osborn is within a few points of Sen. Pete Ricketts.
Each of these could swing the Senate by a single seat.
Donald Trump and the Midterm Elections
Trump is not on the ballot, but he is central to the story. He has predicted that Republicans will hold both the House and the Senate.
In the final days, he canceled two in-person rallies in Kansas and Iowa and shifted to phone rallies. Polls have shown his approval rating below 50 percent.
Historically, the president’s party tends to lose House seats in the midterms, and Democrats are hoping that pattern holds.
The Angle Few People Mention: Read the Order, Not Just the Numbers
Here is a tip for watching results tonight. The order in which results arrive can mislead you.
Some states count mail ballots slowly. California can take days or weeks, and Alaska runs ranked-choice rounds after election night.
That means an early lead may shrink or grow. A call from a race tracker is more reliable than a screenshot of a partial count.
Why Forecasts Can Disagree
Models use different inputs, such as polls, past results, and fundraising. Some gave Democrats a 65 percent Senate chance, while others went above 80.
None of them predicts a vote total. They are estimates of how often a party would win if the election were held many times.
So a 16 percent chance for Republicans in the House is still a real possibility.
What to Do Next
If you have not voted, find your polling place and bring any required ID. If you are in line when polls close, you can generally still vote.
Then follow results from the Associated Press and your state election office. Be patient, since close races may take days to call.
The 2026 midterm election results will shape the next two years of Washington, and the final answer will come from voters, not forecasts.