Key Points: Chevron Nears Record High
- Chevron shares are trading around $225, near an all-time high and reportedly up about 45% this year, ahead of third-quarter earnings on October 30.
- On October 5 Chevron announced four leadership moves effective January 1, 2027, and reports say two of the executives are potential successors to CEO Mike Wirth, 65.
- Wirth has said he does not expect to serve beyond ten years as CEO, which points to a change around early 2028 by my count.
- He also called a possible U.S. diesel export ban “unwise,” tying Chevron to the fuel squeeze behind high pump prices.
Chevron Stock Nears A Record While The Boardroom Shuffles
Chevron has had a busy October. Shares were quoted around $225 on October 16, close to the top of their 52-week range, and the company’s market value is about $444 billion.
Analysts are mostly constructive. Morgan Stanley raised its target from $218 to $226 with an overweight rating, and Wells Fargo has a Buy, while Barclays has a Hold.
Third-quarter results arrive October 30 before the market opens, with a call at 11 a.m. Shell reports October 29 and BP the same day as Chevron.
The Four Moves, Explained
Here is what Chevron announced on October 5, effective January 1.
Eimear Bonner: The chief financial officer becomes president of Oil, Products and Gas, running the core operations.
Jeff Gustavson: The head of New Energies becomes chief financial officer.
Brent Gros: The offshore president takes over New Energies, and one report says his remit includes the company’s AI strategy.
Mark Nelson: The vice chairman stays on but shifts to strategy and business development.
The Rotation Pattern Nobody Is Talking About
Here is the angle most coverage skips. Bloomberg and Reuters reported the moves position Bonner, 52, and Gustavson, 54, as the two likely internal successors to Wirth.
Look at what the shuffle does. It swaps the two candidates between the finance chair and the biggest operating job, so each gets a seat the other has held.
Bonner gets the profit engine and an operating record. Gustavson gets the chief financial officer’s seat, which carries investor relations and daily contact with Wall Street.
Wirth became CEO in early 2018, so a ten year limit points to roughly early 2028. That gives the two about 13 months in their new roles, which is my reading rather than a company statement. Nelson, who is not named as a successor, moves to a dealmaking brief.
Why Diesel Puts Wirth In The Spotlight
The other story is the diesel squeeze. The International Energy Agency said global onshore oil stocks are at their lowest since at least 2016, and wholesale diesel hit records near $220 a barrel in September.
Brent traded at about $108.70 on October 14, versus $62.54 a year earlier. The Energy Information Administration expects U.S. retail diesel to average $5.19 a gallon this year and stay above $4 through 2027.
On October 7, Wirth told CNBC that a U.S. diesel export ban would be “unwise.” He described inventories as very low, which makes the system more vulnerable to disruption.
The usual argument for a ban is that it could lower domestic prices, while critics say it would worsen shortages abroad and invite retaliation. That debate links directly to this month’s red dye diesel order and the Russian diesel deal.
The Hess Midstream Deal: A Big Loss On Paper
Chevron also agreed on October 6 to divest its stake in Hess Midstream and some DJ Basin crude assets. The company expects the agreements to cut its Bakken midstream costs by about half.
It also expects a one-time after-tax loss of $3 billion to $4 billion at closing. That is an accounting charge tied to the sale, and it should not be read as an operating loss.
What To Watch On October 30
Refiners have enjoyed strong margins. Shell put its indicative refining margin at $42 a barrel for the quarter, up from $24, and BP reported $46.7, up from $29.6.
Look for Chevron’s refining results, production growth, shareholder returns and any comment on succession. Wirth may be asked about both the shuffle and diesel exports.
The Bottom Line
Chevron is riding high prices and a record stock while preparing for the first CEO change in nearly a decade. The next three weeks will show how much of the rally is margins and how much is management.
Trenbuzz will keep following Chevron’s earnings and leadership plans.