Published by TrenBuzz.com | June 12, 2026
Key Points at a Glance – Oil Crashes Below $85
- US crude oil settled below $85 per barrel Friday on hopes for an interim US-Iran peace deal.
- The deal would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions, according to US officials.
- The S&P 500 extended its weekly gains, with Asian stocks set to follow Wall Street higher.
- SpaceX stock surged 19% in a record-breaking IPO debut the same day.
- Polymarket traders have moved odds on a near-term permanent peace deal, with over $293 million traded on the contract.
- The White House reiterated hostilities had terminated, helping stabilize prices after a volatile week.
Two headlines. One trading day. Oil crashed. SpaceX soared. And Wall Street decided, at least for Friday, that peace was more believable than war.
Hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough that would end the war in Iran extended a slide in oil prices while lifting stocks, with Wall Street’s enthusiasm also fueled by SpaceX’s strong trading debut. The S&P 500 extended this week’s gain, with Elon Musk‘s space company up 19% after a record-breaking IPO. US oil settled below $85 as the US said an interim peace deal that reopens the Strait of Hormuz and ends Iran’s nuclear weapons ambitions looks increasingly likely and could be signed within days.
What This Means for the Strait of Hormuz
The interim deal under discussion would specifically address two of the war’s biggest flashpoints: the closed Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil flows, and Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Reopening Hormuz alone could be the single biggest catalyst for falling oil prices since the war began on February 28.
The Prediction Markets Are Watching Closely
More than $293 million has traded on Polymarket‘s “US x Iran permanent peace deal” contract as of June 12. Key upcoming factors include verification mechanisms for any enrichment limits and potential involvement of regional actors such as Israel. The White House reiterated that hostilities had terminated, reaffirming the earlier claim and stabilizing market prices after a volatile week.
Why Traders Remain Cautious Despite the Rally
Markets have been burned before. Multiple ceasefires this year have collapsed within days, each time sending oil and stocks swinging violently in the opposite direction. Friday’s rally reflects genuine optimism, but few traders are betting the house on a deal that has not yet been signed by both sides.
If oil under $85 holds and the deal is signed within days as Trump suggests, it would mark the most significant de-escalation since the war began over three months ago.
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Disclaimer: This article is for general informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. All market data is sourced from Bloomberg and Polymarket as of June 12, 2026. No final Iran deal had been signed as of publication. Markets are highly volatile and prices may have changed significantly since publication. TrenBuzz.com does not provide trading recommendations. Readers should consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.