Key Points: Pete Ricketts Fights
- Pete Ricketts, Nebraska’s Republican senator, is in one of the closest races of his career against independent Dan Osborn, with 16 days until Election Day.
- Recent polls range from Osborn up 1 point to Ricketts up 3, while forecasters still give Ricketts roughly a 3 in 4 to 4 in 5 chance.
- Ricketts was the last Republican to lose a Nebraska Senate race, in 2006, and Republicans have won every one since.
- On three farm issues, including a beef import waiver and a diesel order, the two candidates mostly agree.
Pete Ricketts Faces The Toughest Race Of His Career
Pete Ricketts has won nearly every race he has run in Nebraska since 2006, but this one feels different. Republican groups have taken challenger Dan Osborn seriously enough to raise their spending, and the polls are tight.
The Senate Leadership Fund, the main GOP outside group for Senate races, recently raised its support for Ricketts from $7 million to $15 million. A Ricketts loss would remove a vote from the Republican caucus.
Osborn is a registered independent who says he will not caucus with Democrats. Voters decide on November 3, and the race could shape Senate control.
The 2006 Twist Nobody Is Talking About
Here is a fact that gets lost in most coverage. Ricketts is the last Republican to lose a Nebraska Senate election, falling to Democratic incumbent Ben Nelson in 2006.
Republicans have won every Nebraska Senate race since then. Ricketts has been on the winning side of that streak as governor, then as a senator appointed in 2023 and elected in 2024 with 62.6%.
That makes this an unusual test. The man trying to protect a streak is also the last person to break it.
Nebraska’s 90 Year Independent Streak
Osborn’s candidacy has deeper roots than it looks. By most histories, George Norris won Nebraska’s Senate seat in 1936 as an independent, and he later pushed the state to adopt its nonpartisan legislature.
Nebraska is still the only state with a nonpartisan, one house legislature. That makes an independent campaign feel less alien than in other deep red states.
Osborn nearly proved it in 2024. He lost to Sen. Deb Fischer by fewer than seven points, while the Democrat in the separate special election lost to Ricketts by more than 24.
Where Pete Ricketts And Osborn Actually Agree
The race is not a clean Trump versus anti-Trump fight on every issue. Both men called President Trump’s temporary tariff waiver on up to 300,000 metric tons of imported ground beef a mistake for ranchers, whose herds are at their smallest in nearly 75 years.
Osborn called the waiver a “colossal mistake.” Ricketts said he told Trump that short-term fixes do not help ranchers.
Both also backed Trump’s red dye diesel order, though some farmers and trucking groups doubted how much it would help. And both said Iran should not have a nuclear weapon.
Where They Split
The differences are real. Ricketts defends targeted tariffs and most of Trump’s trade agenda, saying they level the playing field, while Osborn argues broad tariffs act like a tax on consumers and says Congress should control them.
They also split on the tax and spending law. Ricketts says it avoided a $2,400 tax increase for families, and Osborn says it mostly benefits the wealthy.
Ricketts calls Osborn a “secret Democrat,” and Osborn says he will run above party lines.
The Money And The Ballot
Ricketts has the money advantage, with about $11.2 million raised against $5.8 million for Osborn, according to figures compiled by Kalshi. But only about 2% of Ricketts’s money came from small donors, versus 38% for Osborn.
Democrats, meanwhile, are mostly out of the picture. The party’s primary winner, Cindy Burbank, withdrew and Democrats did not name a replacement, so voters will see Ricketts, Osborn and three other names.
Why It Looks Like A Coin Flip But Is Not
Polls are close. YouGov had Osborn up 48 to 47, while a Republican firm had Ricketts up 46 to 43, and Decision Desk HQ’s average puts Ricketts ahead 47 to 45.
Forecasters still favor him. Decision Desk gives Ricketts about a 4 in 5 chance, and Kalshi traders put it near 73%, largely because Nebraska leans red.
A few points of polling error in either direction could decide it, so the forecasts and the polls are not in conflict.
What To Watch In The Final 16 Days
Watch the cost of living, which both campaigns say is the top issue. Nebraska families are feeling higher fuel and fertilizer costs tied to the Iran war.
Also watch whether the Republican groups that increased spending keep adding ads, and whether farm groups, split between the Farm Bureau for Ricketts and the Farmers Union for Osborn, move late.
The Bottom Line
Pete Ricketts is still the favorite, but he is defending a streak he once broke. The final weeks will test whether Nebraska’s independent tradition can beat its Republican one.
Trenbuzz will keep following the Nebraska Senate race through Election Day.